America is less than one hundred days away from choosing the next president. From President Joe Biden dropping out of the race and endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris to former President Donald Trump being shot at his own rally, this election season has been nothing short of a rollercoaster.
Polls from Fox News and The Wall Street Journal put Trump and Harris within single-digit percentage points from each other, leaving the fate of the country truly up for grabs. One American University professor, however says he has the answers to all of the country’s burning questions surrounding the winner of the 2024 election, and he has a tried and true method to prove it.
Dr. Lichtman’s Method
According to C-SPAN, Dr. Allan Lichtman is a an election forecaster, most notable for correctly predicting nearly every presidential election since 1984, including the last ten elections correctly. How does he do it? According to Fox News, Lichtman developed a formula he calls “the keys to the White House,” and to his defense, his method usually works.
Lichtman correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 election and Biden’s 2020 win. If that wasn’t enough, the historian also predicted both of former President Barack Obama’s 2008 and 2012 elections using the exact same method, according to American University. The man is good.
The Magic of the Keys
He makes his predictions based on thirteen categorizes— or “keys” as the historian likes to call them. The categories are framed as “true or false” questions; if the candidate answers “true,” they also get a key. The candidate with the most keys is Lichtman’s predicted winner.
Lichtman’s “keys” explores the strengths and weaknesses of both candidates in addition to analyzing the current state of the nation.
The “keys” are as followed:
- party mandate
- contest
- incumbency
- third party
- short-term economy
- long-term economy
- policy change
- social unrest
- scandal
- foreign/military failure
- foreign/military success
- incumbent charisma
- challenger charisma
So…. What Does Lichtman Think About Harris vs. Trump?
At the beginning of this election season, Democrats automatically won the “incumbency” key, but obviously, a lot has changed since then. While Lichtman said it’s still too early for him to make his final prediction, the professor told NewsNation “a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose.”
The professor promises to make his definitive choice after the Democratic National Convention, scheduled to start on Aug. 19.
As it stands right now, Harris controls six keys: primary contest, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, no scandal, and no challenger charisma. Trump has three keys working in his favor: mandate, because the Republicans won the House majority in the 2022 midterms; no incumbency, because Biden is no longer seeking re-election; and the incumbent lacking charisma (sorry, Biden).
According to Lichtman, if the Democrats lose four more keys, Trump will likely win in November. The probability of that is unlikely, he said… but as we all know, crazy things are known to happen when we’re talking about American politics.