America is less than one hundred days away from choosing the next president. From President Joe Biden dropping out of the race and endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris to former President Donald Trump being shot at his own rally, this election season has been nothing short of a rollercoaster.

Polls from Fox News and The Wall Street Journal put Trump and Harris within single-digit percentage points from each other, leaving the fate of the country truly up for grabs. One American University professor, however says he has the answers to all of the country’s burning questions surrounding the winner of the 2024 election, and he has a tried and true method to prove it.

Dr. Lichtman’s Method

According to C-SPAN, Dr. Allan Lichtman is a an election forecaster, most notable for correctly predicting nearly every presidential election since 1984, including the last ten elections correctly. How does he do it? According to Fox News, Lichtman developed a formula he calls “the keys to the White House,” and to his defense, his method usually works.

Lichtman correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 election and Biden’s 2020 win. If that wasn’t enough, the historian also predicted both of former President Barack Obama’s 2008 and 2012 elections using the exact same method, according to American University. The man is good.

The Magic of the Keys

He makes his predictions based on thirteen categorizes— or “keys” as the historian likes to call them. The categories are framed as “true or false” questions; if the candidate answers “true,” they also get a key. The candidate with the most keys is Lichtman’s predicted winner.

Lichtman’s “keys” explores the strengths and weaknesses of both candidates in addition to analyzing the current state of the nation.

The “keys” are as followed:

• party mandate
• contest
• incumbency
• third party
• short-term economy
• long-term economy
• policy change
• social unrest
• scandal
• foreign/military failure
• foreign/military success
• incumbent charisma
• challenger charisma

So…. What Does Lichtman Think About Harris vs. Trump?

At the beginning of this election season, Democrats automatically won the “incumbency” key, but obviously, a lot has changed since then. While Lichtman said it’s still too early for him to make his final prediction, the professor told NewsNation “a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose.”

The professor promises to make his definitive choice after the Democratic National Convention, scheduled to start on Aug. 19.

As it stands right now, Harris controls six keys: primary contest, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, no scandal, and no challenger charisma. Trump has three keys working in his favor: mandate, because the Republicans won the House majority in the 2022 midterms; no incumbency, because Biden is no longer seeking re-election; and the incumbent lacking charisma (sorry, Biden).

According to Lichtman, if the Democrats lose four more keys, Trump will likely win in November. The probability of that is unlikely, he said… but as we all know, crazy things are known to happen when we’re talking about American politics.

Editor’s note: The following article is an op-ed, and the views expressed are the author’s own. Read more opinions on theGrio.

In 1969, then-freshman Congresswoman Shirley Chisholm predicted this political moment. 

During an interview with renowned English journalist David Frost on the orange, purple and maroon set of “The David Frost Show,” he cooly asked Chisholm, “Tell me, do you think there can ever be a woman president of the United States?”

Chisholm didn’t bat an eye as she immediately responded, “Oh, yes. Yes, it’s coming.” She added, “I believe this country will be saved by women and students, and if the women come together in spite of racial differences, class differences, economic differences and back a strong woman, I could see this happening in about 70 to 75 years.” 

Frost, bowled over, quipped, “That’s quite a long time, isn’t it,” and Chisholm explained that this timeline allows men to prepare to step aside and “get acclimated for the thing that is to happen in the future because it is going to happen. Nobody will be able to stop it.” 

Chisholm’s prediction was markedly more positive and unifying than President Gerald Ford’s much darker forecast in 1989. Ford projected that a sitting president would need to die in order for a woman to ascend. Thankfully, we are experiencing what Chisholm foretold — at least half of it, so far. 

President Joe Biden’s decision to leave the 2024 presidential election and effectively “step aside” after urging from Democratic Party leaders, while a difficult decision, created space for Vice President Kamala Harris to step forward and earn the Democratic nomination. Biden’s decision also further steeped his political legacy in supporting and advancing Black leaders. Biden served as vice president to the first Black president, Barack Obama, for two terms. In August 2020, Biden selected then-Senator Kamala Harris to serve as his running mate and the first Black and Southeast Asian woman vice president. In 2022, Biden nominated the first Black woman to the Supreme Court, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson. And in 2024, he passed the torch to Vice President Harris as she prepared to become the first Black and Southeast Asian woman to earn the Democratic nomination for president, and potentially become the first woman elected president of the United States. 

Biden also satisfied one of Chisholm’s conditions for the nation to elect the first woman president, and now, the unity coalition of women and young people that she outlined must drive this mission forward — and they’re off to a strong start.  

Elections

Since the Harris for President campaign launched on July 21, momentum from women and young people has thrust the effort to elect the first woman president into the outer range of the political stratosphere, and Black women have led the charge. Win With Black Women organized 44,000 Black women on the day that Harris announced her campaign and received Biden’s immediate endorsement. Since then, Latina women, Asian women, Native women, white women, Black men, LGBTQ people, veterans and people living with disabilities, have all joined the call to action and a unified coalition is developing in real time. It’s also easy to unite against Republicans who promise this will be the last election that people will need to vote and describe women as DEI hires and childless cat ladies. 

Excitement is also captured in surges in voter registration, campaign donations and volunteer signups. Vote.org reported 100,000 new voter registrations within the five days since Harris’ campaign started, and 84% of the new voters were young people under the age of 35 years old. The Harris campaign broke fundraising records as they brought in $200 million in grassroots contributions in one week, and 66% of the donations came from first-time donors. Harris’ team also reported 170,000 new campaign volunteers in the week since the campaign launched, with spikes in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Florida. 

Online, neon green has doused feeds and timelines across social media leaving many Millennials, Gen Xers and Boomers confused. The color is the clearest indicator of support among young people who have doused the internet in Kamala Harris memes and videos of her dancing, laughing and a 2023 clip of her quoting her mother asking, “You think you just fell out of a coconut tree?” The trend aligns with the “brat” themes of living a messy, authentic life without fear of judgment from others as declared by British singer Charlie XCX. The digital takeover has generated millions of views, likes, shares, and immeasurable excitement within Democratic politics, and it has created an opening for Harris to pick up additional support among Gen Z voters.

As Vice President Harris looks to continue to expand on her appeal to young people, many are watching how she engages on issues like abortion rights, gun violence prevention, student loan debt, and Israel’s bombardment of Gaza, separately from President Biden. When it comes to Gaza, Harris addressed the nation following her one-on-one meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and attempted to balance her comments between Israel’s right to target Hamas and the devastation and death of Palestinians in Gaza. In response, Uncommitted National Movement leader and DNC delegate Abbas Alaweih noted to Politico, “Vice President Harris, conveyed more sympathy for the plight of civilians in Gaza than President Biden did at any point. … And that is a positive sign.” The anti-war, pro-peace advocates of the Uncommitted movement have been calling for a ceasefire since launching the Listen to Michigan campaign during the presidential primaries, and they expressed that Harris could earn their votes by committing to a lasting ceasefire through an arms embargo to Israel. 

With only three months left until the election, the foundational components of the unity coalition that Shirley Chisholm called for must be sustained and expanded. Some of that will be determined by Harris’ policy positions, and her ability to extend her appeal to voters whose demands have not been met yet. It will also be determined by the people’s ability to demonstrate their collective power through action as they push against fascism, racism, sexism, and the narratives of who can lead this nation. 

Ultimately, whether or not we realize Chisholm’s monumental prediction is in all of our hands.

Juanita Tolliver is the host of Crooked Media’s “What A Day” Podcast, and an MSNBC political analyst.

22

A bombshell exposé has emerged from the late Kim Porter’s personal archives. A 40-page document detailing a tumultuous relationship with Sean “Diddy” Combs has been uncovered on a flash drive given to Radar Online by an anonymous insider.

The memoir, long rumored but never confirmed, offers a raw and intimate account of Porter’s life with the music mogul, promising to shed new light on one of Hollywood’s most high-profile couples.

One alarming chapter details an alleged incident in which Diddy physically assaulted Porter, resulting in her hospitalization. According to the memoir, the altercation escalated after Porter received flowers she initially believed were from Diddy. Upon discovering the true sender, Diddy’s reaction became violent.

“He threw the attached card at me,” Porter writes. “I picked it up to read it. ‘Sean i..’ He slapped me so hard I hit the ground. Sean yelled, ‘Who the f— were you with the other night?’ I looked down at the card that was lying next to me, and it read, ‘The other night was amazing, we must do it again!’”

Porter alleges that Diddy exclaimed, “You don’t touch anyone unless I allow it!” She explains that the meeting was to discuss a potential movie role, but Diddy’s jealousy led to violence. Porter describes being hit with a chair and blacking out, only to wake up in the hospital with a bruised face and her arm in a sling. Diddy, she claims, apologized and told her to lie about the incident, saying she was in an accident.

The memoir also addresses the untimely death of a producer she previously dated. Both individuals succumbed to pneumonia, a shared circumstance that adds an intriguing layer to the narrative. Their relationship concluded in 2007, and Porter tragically passed away in 2018.

Diddy’s world is rocked by a new wave of accusations as a bombshell memoir reexamines the tragic death of Kim Porter. The book’s revelations cast a long shadow over the music mogul, forcing a reckoning with the past.

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Adjoa Andoh is opening up about her experience on the hit Netflix series “Bridgerton” and “Queen Charlotte: A Bridgerton Story.”  

The actress, who plays Lady Danbury in the “Bridgerton” universe, revealed in a recent episode of the Stirring it Up podcast that she does not yet feel “empowered” in her career, in part because of extra steps she must take as a Black woman. Andoh said that she has faced a “continuing conversation about lighting Black skin.” 

“On every show, nothing’s changed,” the actress shared about her experience with poor lighting. 

Andoh added the industry is becoming more aware of how to properly light all skin tones, but Black actors are expected to constantly explain and advocate for themselves, while white actors can just focus on their craft. 

“I want to stay in character,” Andoh said. “I just want to come on and be Lady Danbury and do what she’s got to do and be totally engaged with that.”

Andoh added that she does feel empowered to stand up for Black actors some of the time on the set of “Bridgerton,” but it’s not a consistent feeling. 

“I will now go: ‘Am I blond?’” she said, referencing the poor lighting. “But I hate doing it because a bit of me is like, ‘Oh, I don’t want to do it. I don’t want to make a fuss.’ When people say we’re chippy or we’re being militant or we’re all that stuff, what I want to say is, ‘I’m just a human being and I just want to do the gift that I’m blessed with. I want to do it in a free way, like I see many other people doing.’”

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Andoh went on to say that she often wonders if she’s missing out on roles, or booking them, because of the color of her skin. She describes the process as “very tiring and very distracting,” adding that Black actors shouldn’t have to carry this weight in the entertainment industry, per People. 

“I don’t want to think about it,” she said. “I just want to get the job because I’m great, or not get the job because I’m s—.”

6

Palestinian Supermodel Bella Hadid has released a heartfelt statement following her removal from an Adidas campaign centered on the 1972 Munich Olympics, which faced significant backlash from Israel. The campaign, which aimed to celebrate the spirit of the Olympics, was criticized for its insensitivity to the tragic events of the 1972 Munich massacre, where 11 Israeli athletes were killed.

Hadid expressed her profound regret and disappointment in a statement, emphasizing her unawareness of the campaign’s historical context. She stated, “For those of you that do not know my heart, I want to make sure you’re hearing directly from me about my recent campaign with adidas. I would never knowingly engage with any art or work that is linked to a horrific tragedy of any kind. In advance of the campaign’s release, I had no knowledge of the historical connection to the atrocious events in 1972.”

Hadid went on to express her shock and upset over the situation, noting the collective failure to recognize the sensitivity required for such a campaign. “I am shocked, I am upset, and I am disappointed in the lack of sensitivity that went into this campaign. Had I been made aware, from the bottom of my heart, I would never have participated,” she said. She also took responsibility, acknowledging that more research should have been done on her part, her team’s part, and by Adidas.

The model, who is of Palestinian descent, addressed the broader implications of the controversy, connecting it to the struggles of the Palestinian people. “Connecting the liberation of the Palestinian people to an attack so tragic is something that hurts my heart. Palestine is not synonymous with terrorism and this campaign unintentionally highlighted an event that does not represent who we are. I am a proud Palestinian woman and there is so much more to our culture than the things that have been equated over the past week.”

Hadid reiterated her commitment to advocating for both Palestinian rights and a world free of antisemitism. “I will forever stand by my people of Palestine while continuing to advocate for a world free of antisemitism. Antisemitism has no place in the liberation of the Palestinian people,” she stated.

Concluding her statement, Hadid emphasized her dedication to peace and her condemnation of all forms of hate. “I will always stand for peace over violence, any day. Hate has no place here, and I will forever advocate for not only my people but every person worldwide.”

Bella Hadid Statement

Adidas has formally apologized for its recent SL72 campaign, which inadvertently drew parallels to the tragic events of the 1972 Munich Olympics. The company acknowledges the distress caused by these unintended associations and expresses sincere regret for any offense.

In addition, Adidas has apologized to campaign partners, including Bella Hadid, ASAP Nast, and Jules Koundé, for the negative impact of the controversy. The company is currently undergoing a comprehensive review of the campaign.

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In 2016, during the Rio Olympic Summer Games, Team Nigeria famously arrived for the opening ceremony in simple white and green tracksuits. Their actual opening ceremony kits failed to arrive in time. By the 2021 Olympics in Tokyo, Black-owned sportswear brand Actively Black, founded by former professional basketball player Lanny Smith, sponsored Team Nigeria, outfitting them for the games and their opening and closing ceremonies.

This partnership has continued for the 2024 Paris Olympics, with Nigeria once again donning duds by the small Los Angeles-based sports apparel brand.

According to a release to theGrio, this year’s kits include looks for the entire 200-plus member delegation, including apparel for the opening and closing ceremonies, uniforms for competing athletes in track and field, and all casualwear for the delegation at the Olympic Village.

“To see a Black-owned brand on the same global stage as Nike and Lululemon and Adidas, it makes everyone start to look at us differently,” Smith told the New York Times. “It’s a major moment for us.”

The release said the Actively Black Olympic kit “brings together the traditional and the modern.” The uniforms for competing athletes feature silhouettes designed for optimal performance. Meanwhile, at the Olympic Village, the delegation will sport athleisure and casualwear featuring “traditional” Nigerian prints in a black, green, and white colorway embellished with the Nigerian Olympic logo.

“Designers Jordan Jackson and Danielle McCoy evoked the traditional, reimagining The Market as a conceptual vehicle to showcase the diversity and cultural nuance of Nigerian identity,” the release said.

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The opening and closing ceremonial looks also feature a classic block print in the green and white of the Nigerian flag, and are made from Funtua cotton, which is named after the Nigerian state where it is produced.

Since Actively Black kicked off this partnership with Team Nigeria, it hasn’t been the only Black brand to join the fun. This year, several teams and athletes have been outfitted by Black brands and designers throughout their Olympic journey. 

Before the opening ceremonies, Alaysha Johnson, a Black runner on the U.S. team, qualified for the Paris games while wearing HMN ALNS. Liberian-American designer Telfar Clemens made headlines when it was revealed his eponymous brand had once again designed the official Olympic kits for Team Liberia, which include opening ceremony looks and uniforms for the competing athletes. Team Haiti’s 15-member delegation arrived in elegant opening ceremony looks designed by Haitian-Italian designer Stella Jean that reimagined the colors associated with their flag and paid homage to Haitian painter Philippe Dodard. 

“For these athletes, it’s a victory just to be here,” Jean told AP News, referring to the fact that since 2021, Haiti has been experiencing one of its worst periods of instability and political turmoil in modern history. 

Meanwhile, Team South Sudan nearly broke the internet when they arrived in Black suits designed by Moses Turahirwa with more drip than the whole of the River Seine (including custom cuts for each team member!). As their Olympic rival LeBron James said, “Them boys was clean AF.”

Actively Black – Team Nigeria

Team Nigeria’s 2024 Paris Olympic kits by Actively Black. (Photo credit: Actively Black)

Actively Black – Team Nigeria

Blessing Ejiofor #22 of Team Nigeria looks on during the Women’s Group Phase – B match between Team Nigeria and Team Australia on day three of the Olympic Games Paris 2024 at Stade Pierre Mauroy on July 29, 2024 in Lille, France. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

Actively Black – Team Nigeria

Amy Okonkwo #0 and Pallas Kunaiyi-Akpanah #3 of Team Nigeria cele r during the Women’s Group Phase – B match between Team Nigeria and Team Australia on day three of the Olympic Games Paris 2024 at Stade Pierre Mauroy on July 29, 2024 in Lille, France. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

Telfar – Team Liberia

Athletes from team Liberia disembark their boat on the River Seine during the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games Paris 2024 on July 26, 2024 in Paris, France. (Photo by Annegret Hilse-Pool/Getty Images)

Telfar – Team Liberia

Thelma Davies and Emmanuel Matadi, Flagbearers of Team Liberia, are seen on a boat waving their flag along the River Seine during the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games Paris 2024 on July 26, 2024 in Paris, France. (Photo by Lars Baron/Getty Images)

Moses Turahirwa – Team South Sudan

Team South Sudan are seen on a boat on the River Seine during the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games Paris 2024 on July 26, 2024 in Paris, France. (Photo by Richard Pelham/Getty Images)

Stella Jean – Team Haiti

Lynnzee Brown and Philippe Abel Metellus, Flagbearers of Team Haiti, are seen on a boat waving their flag along the River Seine during the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games Paris 2024 on July 26, 2024 in Paris, France. (Photo by Lars Baron/Getty Images)

HMN ALNS – Alaysha Johnson

Bronze medalist Grace Stark, silver medalist Alaysha Johnson, and gold medalist Masai Russell pose with their medals after competing in the women’s 100 meter hurdles final on Day Ten of the 2024 U.S. Olympic Team Track & Field Trials at Hayward Field on June 30, 2024 in Eugene, Oregon. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Actively Black – Team Nigeria

Team Nigeria’s 2024 Paris Olympic kits by Actively Black. (Photo credit: Actively Black)

I’m not sure if an actual basement exists when it comes to the quality of Tyler Perry content, but “Divorce in the Black” has to be close.

With Perry’s first-ever 0 percent Rotten Tomatoes score and what might be the most ridiculous opening eight minutes of a film involving a Mo’Nique clone and a former Beyoncé in-law you’ve ever seen, “Black” will likely cause you to turn the shit off before it even gets going – as I did.

Yet, this being the 50-somethingth Perry film (and the second this year), we all knew what we were getting into with “Black:” His films are a watch-to-see-how-bad-they-are exercise in tolerance in which many of us only engage so we can talk trash on social media.

And so goes the Tyler Perry conflict that has gestated since Madea pulled her first glock: On one hand, perhaps no director or producer in Hollywood has employed so many Black actors, even if his contributions to his studio town of Atlanta are questionable. Award-winning A-list actors like Viola Davis and Idris Elba will admit in hushed tones that Perry cut them the check they needed early in their careers (good luck getting either to do a Perry movie in 2024).

Perry has also gotten love from “Black” stars Meagan Good and Cory Hardrict, who say they made more money with him than anyone else in an industry that’s thrilled to underpay Black people. There’s no denying Perry’s import in this manner, nor is there denying the brilliance of skating to success via the previously untapped Black Christian woman demographic.

On the other hand, his films are a now-ultra-predictable smorgasbord of Black stereotypes and tropes, many of which were already offensive when he started perpetuating them 20-plus years ago. Take a down-on-her-luck sista whose made every bad decision a human can make, pair her with a comically toxic Black man (hi, Steve Harris!), mix in a saintly Black man to swoop in with his cape to save her, sprinkle in a lil’ church and voila — facsimile ad nauseam and hope your audience doesn’t notice.

Oh, and f*** a writers room…who needs one of those when he can write every movie by himself and stack dough?

Perry has spent years rebuffing these complaints, recently dubbing those of us who insist on a modicum of cinematic quality “Highbrow Negroes,” as he did on KeKe Palmer’s podcast “Baby, This is Keke Palmer.”

Now, Perry didn’t make it to billionaire status by being a rank idiot. He’s worked in enough material by other auteurs (he was in a David Fincher film, for chrissakes) to know that staying siloed into his own brand of divisive filmmaking will invite critics at his doorstep with pitchforks.

His staunch refusal to get a writer’s room is likely less a function of him not knowing any better and more about keeping as much of the almighty dollar as he can for himself (and maybe some hubris to boot). Perry defenders will suggest that he doesn’t need listen to critics since he has more money than all of our comparatively broke asses — and maybe they aren’t wrong.

However, regardless of if he wants the gig, Perry matters to Black Hollywood. He’s “Mr. Perry” to a number of entertainers we enjoy. But something has to give at some point — he can’t keep making films with some epigone of evil, light-eyed Michael Ealy terrorizing a beautiful real estate executive who wouldn’t even be in this shit if she only turned her life to the Lord and expect us to continue watching them.

Essentially, Tyler Perry needs to stop playing in our faces. The near-universal condemnation of “Divorce in the Black” proves there’s a clock to his bullshit, and it’s ticking.

Mark your calendars for Saturday, September 14th, because the 2024 HBCU New York Football Classic is coming to MetLife Stadium, and it’s going to be an unforgettable event! This year, the classic showdown between Morehouse College and Howard University will be electrified by a historic attempt to set the record for the World’s Largest Black Greek Stroll Line.

Imagine thousands of Divine Nine members from chapters, organizations, and individuals coming together in a vibrant display of unity and culture, all strolling into the stadium and onto the field at MetLife Stadium. This isn’t just a game; it’s a celebration of HBCU pride, heritage, and community spirit!

The excitement doesn’t stop there. The HBCU NY Classic is calling on fans, students, alumni, and supporters of HBCUs from all over to join in this monumental event. And here’s the kicker: the D9 organization with the largest number of strollers will walk away with a whopping $10,000 for its educational foundation. That’s right – your stroll can make a difference!

Don’t miss out on the chance to be part of this historic moment. Whether you’re a die-hard football fan, a proud HBCU alum, or someone who loves to see history in the making, this event is for you.

So rally your chapter, grab your friends, and head to MetLife Stadium for a day of football, fun, and the world’s largest Greek stroll line. Let’s make history together and show the world the power and pride of HBCUs!

For more information and to have you/your org participate, CLICK HERE.

Get ready to stroll, cheer, and celebrate – we’ll see you at the Classic!